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Causal Loop Diagram for Tulpa Development


Aviar

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Began building a causal loop diagram representing different factors which occur or are taken under consideration while generating a tulpa, as well as the influence of these factor on each other. Diagrams early stages, and I wrote up and created the interactions in a sleep deprived state, so expect changes (especially once I get decent sleep). Until there, here it is.

 

I have provided the original Vensim file as an attachment, the diagram is NOT executable. The obvious reason for this is that there is no numerical data, so I cannot generate any meaningful or accurate equations.

 

Results (Probability of Hologram/Servitor/Sentient) are mutually exclusive (xor), but the diagram will not reflect this. For anyone building an executable model from this, it should not be a problem since the idea of the model was to demonstrate, based on factors, the probability of a tulpa falling under a certain classification.

 

Objective

 

Diagram factors influencing production of hologram, servitor or sentient tulpae through a causal loop diagram to help better understand implications of different differing development choices. It is my hope that the diagram will also help provide a frame in which to compare different methods or tools, permitting a more toolbox approach to current methodologies.

 

Tools

 

Vensim PLE (link provided at end of post)

 

How to Read Causal Loop Diagrams

 

Causal loop diagrams are not only very powerful simulation tools, but also easy to read, as they only contain three different syntactic elements; these elements are the positive relation, negative relation, and node.

 

 

Node: Represents a variable or factor within the system to be modelled.

Positive Relation: Shows that two nodes change in the same 'direction'. If node A increases, node B increases and if node A decreases, node B decreases.

Negative Relation: Shows that two nodes change in the opposite 'direction'. If node A increases, node B decreases and if node A decreases, node B increases.

 

Thus, when viewing the model, it becomes a simple matter of 'tracing' changes as values are altered. While normally a computer would permit to model and view graphs representing the behaviour of the system by executing it, the model I have provided does not contain any equations, so all 'tracing' must be done mentally. To do this, first locate the variable which is currently of interest and trace backwards by following arrows which lead to the node. By doing this, one is able to see which nodes influence upon the variable which is being analyzed. Then, analyzing the relation between any two nodes, it is possible to know if reinforcing (increasing) a certain variable will reinforce the variable which is currently of interest, or if it will weaken (decrease) said variable.

 

Link to Wikipedia entry: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_loop_diagram

 

Please also note that there is also the more powerful Stock and Flow diagrams for modelling, but I did not use it due to it's higher complexity in relation to causal loop diagrams.

 

Using this Diagram

 

Implications

 

While this diagram, on its own, does not constitute a new method or tool, it can serve to determine the appropriate factors over which an aspiring tulpa host may act to take corrective action. For example, if a user is currently noticing problems in visualization, then they may identify factors which may be the source of the deficiency by tracing and select appropriate tools to remedy the situation. Hopefully this will permit users to deviate from Guides through permiting them to identify deficiencies which appear in practice and providing the necessary knowledge for selecting an appropriate tool with which to take corrective action.

 

Furthermore, we hope that this model will provide a frame from which different methodologies may be compared. A methodology is understood as a set of steps and tools to solving a problem. In this case, at the time of writing, the two existing methodoligies are FAQ_Mans and Irish's, with each defining certain activities, tasks and tools to creating a tulpa (I have provided a link to both Guides at the end of the post). FAQ_Mans method is....

 

Shortcomings

 

This methodology is only as accurate as the current understanding of the process. Thus, it may not accurately model all factors. Please feel free to recommend new factors to be added by replying to this thread.

 

This methodology, while capable of demonstrating relationships, does not provide solutions. An example of this is tulpa personality deviation. While the model attempts to provide a good understanding of the mechanics behind such a phenomenon, it does not provide any steps or tools to rectify it. As such, I hope that other fellow community members will attempt to identify problems within existing practices and develop new methods for addressing them.

 

This model only demonstrates relations, but not the degree (coupling) of relation. That is to say, the model can show you that if one increases Number of Planned Personality Traits, Number of Hobbies, Number of Facial Expressions or Time Elapsed between Forcing the variable Sessions Estimated Required Time increases due to them all having a positive relationship with regards to Estimated Required Time. It cannot, however, tell you which of these adds more time per unit of change. This is due to the fact that the model is not executable, which in turn is due to a lack of existing quantitive data and metrics. However, even some research into the degree of impact between two relations (rate of change) can be immensely helpful, and demonstrated in this model by simply marking stronger coupled nodes with bolder lines.

 

Causal Loop Diagram for Tulpa Generation

 

Legend

 

Variable (Node):

zujjx5.png

 

+ Arrow (Positive Relation):

o9gt50.png

 

- Arrow(Negative Relation):

2hxrayo.png

 

2a7aqvp.png

 

 

Vensim PLE and Vensim Viewer

 

Here is a link for downloading Vensim software to open the attached file:

http://www.vensim.com/freedownload.html

 

Please note that if you only wish to view the file, you may download the Viewer application, but if you wish to modify it, you must download the PLE (free for educational use) application. For further information, please be sure to read their page. Also to clarify, the model IS the image above, so there is no need to download the Vensim Viewer application to view it if you do not wish to.

 

 

Bibliography

 

FAQ_Man's Tulpa Creation Guide: http://tulpa.info/guides/faqman-creation-guide.html

Irish's Tulpa Creation Guide: http://tulpa.info/guides/irish-creation-guide.html

cld_tulpaforcing.zip

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I can definitely see this coming in handy for measuring tupper and forcing quality and progress to allow for the creation of somewhat accurate statistics in individual or global fields. Still needs a bit of work, but you covered a good amount of variables so far.

 

Will see if I can whip something similar up in Freemind sometime, eventually for comparison and combination with your diagram; I personally don't find execution that necessary and just prefer image distribution.

 

Sorry that I couldn't be of much help in the IRC earlier.

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