Your points are all valid in general, though not for the specific example of Sword & Shield or really us in general. Our opinions take all of this into account. For SwSh, for example:
Forced full heals between what feels like every other battle are very common especially early on, which is enough time to get your party over-leveled with no hassle (I haven't seen the later half of the game yet to tell if the full healing gets less excessive)
Permanent (this time around, not even disable-able) ""Exp. Share"" that multiplies your experience gained a ridiculous amount. You'd expect them to balance the game around this, but based on the three streamers I've seen get to ~lv 50s so far, they definitely end up much higher level overall, with no grinding.
Exp. Candies that are basically handed out to you en masse if you play the Raid content, which you can do solo right from the start of the game easily. You don't have to use them, but it's a little insulting they'd make the game so easy already just to then give out these options to make the game easier - completely foregoing the option to have the game be even a slight challenge. If the game was a little difficult by default, but then had things like XP candies and playing with your Pokemon in the Camp for XP for casual players, that'd be great. But it's not.
That's just the difficulty stuff, nothing about how casual the games feel now overall (you LITERALLY cannot walk five steps without a cutscene showing you where to go for the first ~3 hours of the game, and it stays hand-holdy throughout afaik) nor the poor decisions they've made overall. Though unlike your idea of why they cut Pokemon which is almost surely wrong, the most likely explanation seems to be that the games are developed on major time constraints. That's definitely more "higher up" problems than anything game design/choice wise, to be fair, but it's still causing the problems we see.
But yeah, it's really a case by case basis per-game. Bloons 6 for example is the first game in the series to be absolutely full of Pay-to-Win options, which as players who refuse to use anything but the base game (not even the sampling of free consumable towers/abilities you get from dailies/challenges) may be why the game feels crappy to us.
I could write more about what's wrong with Super Mario Party than I could about Sword & Shield, so I won't get into that one. Point is, despite it being case-by-case, it's still very much a visible trend and it's kind of upsetting. If you want a more professional-sounding source on this exact thing, you could watch this entire too-long-but-very-quality video, or you could go straight to