sushi May 29, 2015 May 29, 2015 I'd say two people who have never been on a mission. There are twenty possible three-person teams. Sixteen of those teams contain an enemy agent. (Four of the teams -- 20% -- have two enemy agents.) Since 80% of the teams have an enemy agent, and since no one can narrow it down at this point, there's a pretty good chance that the agent will betray us this time. In fact, I think the agent would be foolish not to, as this is the best chance they'll get. So let's say there's an 80% chance of betrayal. In the unlikely event of no betrayal, that gives us all information. More likely we'll see a betrayal, which gives the two (or one) innocents on the team information. Assuming that you're innocent, in a three-person team, there's a 70% chance that one of the others on your team is an enemy agent, and a 10% chance that both are. (70 and 10 instead of 80 and 20 because you can eliminate the possibility that you're an enemy agent.) You won't be able to narrow it down to one person, but if someone betrays, you'll have a better than 50% chance of guessing which of your partners is an agent. (Better than 50%, because in one of seven potential betrayals, both of your partners will be agents.) So this round is definitely the best odds the enemy agents will get for betrayal in this game. It's not the best odds the innocents will get, but we still stand a good chance of learning from it, no matter who you pick. "Some things have to be believed to be seen." - Ralph Hodgson
Brassow May 31, 2015 May 31, 2015 The amount of effort you put into analyzing that... "Try to get a better understanding of things before making your judgement." -Khan, Metro 2033
sushi May 31, 2015 May 31, 2015 Oh, I barely put any effort into that. It was like five minutes with a text editor. If this were complicated, I would have spent a few days coding a Monte Carlo script, which would run for a few hours, running tens of thousands of simulations, and then spitting out how likely each possibility is. And yeah, I've done that for games before -- but this is a pretty simple game, at least as far as the probability goes. No need for simulation. "Some things have to be believed to be seen." - Ralph Hodgson
Brassow June 1, 2015 June 1, 2015 So who is in Jean's team? "Try to get a better understanding of things before making your judgement." -Khan, Metro 2033
jean-luc June 2, 2015 June 2, 2015 Me, Yuki, and Sushi. Stats is back: https://stats.jean-luc.org/ My visits to tulpa.info are chaotic. If you want me to see something, make sure to quote a post of mine or ping me @jean-luc
Kiahdaj June 2, 2015 June 2, 2015 It's too early to really be able to tell for sure who you should pick or not, so this works for me. "If this can be avoided, it should. If it can't, then it would be better if it could be. If it happened and you're thinking back to it, try and think back further. Try not to avoid it with your mind. If any of this is possible, it may be helpful. If not, it won't be."
Brassow June 2, 2015 June 2, 2015 And I sit down at my desk, filing evil paperwork *sigh* When I signed up to take over the world, I thought it would be more fun. But go get Steve Gates! His Pear computers suck! "Try to get a better understanding of things before making your judgement." -Khan, Metro 2033
Guest June 6, 2015 June 6, 2015 Unanimous approval again. Suspicious? Maybe. Jean-Luc, Yuki, Sushi: Send in your results.
jean-luc June 8, 2015 June 8, 2015 Stats is back: https://stats.jean-luc.org/ My visits to tulpa.info are chaotic. If you want me to see something, make sure to quote a post of mine or ping me @jean-luc
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