Mafia II: Ponyville in Danger!

[jean-luc]

Voting who to stone and hammering are two separate things, you can do one or both or none - or at least that's how I understand the rules. Can you weigh in on this sushi?

 

I really wish there was a good way to allow posting twice in a row. Maybe I'll make a script to archive the thread every so often (to capture previous revisions). Or perhaps sushi should do that to avoid any conflicts of interest.

 

Before I saw your post I simply thought there was nothing to really go off of, hence the weirdness then abstain. However now, everything you said makes sense. So either you're a valuable member of the non-changlings, or very manipulative member of the changlings.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say laach isn't a changling, since he had similar logic bombs last game, but only in private messages. Now he's saying it publicly. However, it's also possible that he thought ahead and is now doing both a modified analysis in the public, and an honest analysis in PM to the other changling. Hard to tell.

 

Also to avoid superfluous chatter, I think it makes the most sense if you (plural) avoid talking about whether you're a changling, since we all know you're going to say you're not. So for example don't say

Laach: Of course I put myself as not a suspect. You can judge that as you may...

Because it's already known and assumed. The exception of course being if you've been specifically accused and are defending yourself

(sorry laach, don't mean to rag on you but it's a perfect example)

 

But this is all for naught, as I count we have 8 votes to abstain out of the 5 needed for majority, as well as 6(7?) votes to hammer. So, the day should end by now.

In the future, I think we should avoid hammering, as it gives much less chance to talk and discuss, which is what is needed for there to be any chance of the ponies winning.

 

and do tell me what you people mean with ##hammer, it seems pointless.

Damnit yuki, read the initial post. Hammering ends the day early. Otherwise it goes on regardless of current votes until 48 hours has elapsed.

[NimbusArchon]

The only thing I solidly believe right now is that Laach isn't the Protector or Detective. If he were, he probably wouldn't be drawing attention to himself so early on. He could be either an innocent, who is genuinely trying to analyze the situation, or a Changeling, who is trying to gain credibility and trust.

 

I also don't think he'll die tonight, that would be too obvious of a move for the Changelings.

[Laach]

I'm not sure if relating back to older games is a legit way of arguing suspicion.

Why do you think history class exists? If something is happening in the same way as it did back then, it's easy to assume that little has changed relating to that. But if something is happening differently, do you think that maybe it has changed in a way? Especially if it starts becoming similar to something you want to watch out for.

 

 

By that logic, you have been evil in approximately 100% of the last games. That surely makes you suspicious, no?

That's not really my logic. Like, at all.

[jean-luc]

I have a (temporary) solution for the double-post-becomes-an-edit problem: Wayback Machine! (aka Internet Archive). You can ask it to pretty please archive a page if you want. This was my post before: https://web.archive.org/web/20150512062257/https://community.tulpa.info/thread-mafia-ii-ponyville-in-danger?pid=125336

 

Anyway,

I'm not sure if relating back to older games is a legit way of arguing suspicion.

 

By that logic, you have been evil in approximately 100% of the last games. That surely makes you suspicious, no?

I think it's a perfectly reasonable way. If you act differently from how you did last game, it's likely because you're playing a different role. So of course you should do exactly the same as you did last game, but that's hardly reasonable. As for your second line, he makes no similar conclusions.

 

The only thing I solidly believe right now is that Laach isn't the Protector or Detective. If he were, he probably wouldn't be drawing attention to himself so early on. He could be either an innocent, who is genuinely trying to analyze the situation, or a Changeling, who is trying to gain credibility and trust.

 

I also don't think he'll die tonight, that would be too obvious of a move for the Changelings.

 

Avoiding any recursive (is that the right word?) actions, here's how I see it:

Laach is a changling: They obviously don't kill laach, so he survives

Laach isn't a changling: He is too good of a player, so they attempt to kill laach.

 

Now here's what I mean by recursive: Now that I've said this, the changlings might avoid killing laach even if he isn't one, so that he seems to be one and gets killed.

 

And then of course there's the protector which might see laach as helpful and protect him, so that may also be a reason for him to survive. And therefor the protector should shield someone else, since the changlings are targeting someone elses, and therefor the changlings should target laach, and therefor...... etc etc

[Laach]

However, it's also possible that he thought ahead and is now doing both a modified analysis in the public, and an honest analysis in PM to the other changling. Hard to tell.

 

Also to avoid superfluous chatter, I think it makes the most sense if you (plural) avoid talking about whether you're a changling, since we all know you're going to say you're not. So for example don't say

Because it's already known and assumed. The exception of course being if you've been specifically accused and are defending yourself

(sorry laach, don't mean to rag on you but it's a perfect example)

Wow. I didn't expect you to be the one to stick up for me. Thanks Jean-luc. And yeah, I can be extremely manipulative when I want to be. It's best to be suspicious of me no matter how unlikely I make it seem. I'm no doubt either your best friend or your worst nightmare.

 

Also, sorry about the "everyone is a potential suspect" thing. I got into a bad habit since last thread.

 

 

So now that that's out of the way, we have to think. If I'm not going to be the one killed this round, who's the next most likely, and so on? Think, what do they have to gain from killing each individual member? Which person will I, yuki, quetzal, etc. gain the most by killing? This will help you narrow it down, especially since I put the two changelings into a tight situation.

[Kiahdaj]

I've seen some mention of "Laach probably won't be killed by the changeling because that would be too obvious". On the other hand, if Laach's guess of prime suspects are wrong, it could be very advantageous to kill him. That would pin a couple of innocent ponies people as guilty, right off the bat.

Sounds like a sweet deal, to me.

 

I didn't play in any of the previous game(s?), so I don't have any bias in regards to how people acted in the past, so I guess I'll go ahead and state the impressions I get:

 

I also think that Quetzal looks a little suspicious. But I'm not super convinced of it, because it's day one, guys—but he does seem a little shady to me, so far.

 

For some reason Muffin also gave me a bad feeling. I actually got a bad feeling from him first. I guess it's just about the way he worded his posts. "##abstain just like everyone else" sounds slightly nonchalant to me. Everyone knows changelings love to conform(!!!)

 

My opinions so far are based on very little. But apparently making accusations off the bat is how this game works.

 

At this point, I don't care whether Laach is a changeling or not. I don't think it's very important, and it will reveal itself soon enough.

 

Everyone else hasn't left enough of an impression on me to even mention how I feel about them.

[jean-luc]

...I don't care whether Laach is a changeling or not. I don't think it's very important, and it will reveal itself soon enough.

You think? Sure we get to see what happens once a certain japanese cuisine ends the day as they should, but that won't give us any hard evidence either way. Sure if he dies it's highly likely that he wasn't a changling(but not impossible!), but if he lives it's uncertain.

[Kiahdaj]

I don't mean that it will be obvious by tomorrow. I simply think that he is in a position in which he cannot draw any further attention to himself. If he does anything changeling-esque, we'll be all over him. So for now, I am personally going to worry about others until he messes up. I'm not too concerned about it at the moment.

[Laach]

I've seen some mention of "Laach probably won't be killed by the changeling because that would be too obvious". On the other hand, if Laach's guess of prime suspects are wrong, it could be very advantageous to kill him. That would pin a couple of innocent ponies people as guilty, right off the bat.

Sounds like a sweet deal, to me.

 

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention (mostly because posting twice in a row counts as editing) that I didn't really want people to respond to the post that I made for this exact reason.

 

...meh, I'm pretty tired, so I'll do more logic in the morning. If I'm alive by then that is.

[jean-luc]

alright, now that others have posted i can say i meant to do a spoiler, not a stikeout on the text in my previous post. sure looks weird