Jump to content

Recommended Posts

I don't think actual statistic probability will be very helpful here, as the same figures can be given, even if you change up who is in question.

 

I'm also not sure much can be said about the inactive ones, considering they are inactive. If there was only one inactive person, I could see accusing them, but not too much can be done there, I don't think.

 

I do still think that Laach could be one of the changelings, but I think that I will keep my vote on Quetzal. Of course you would defend yourself if you were accused of being the changeling; my feelings are based on the way in which he did it. I guess no one else got that same vibe as me. Either way, I do feel relatively strongly about it.

And besides—if the rest of you really do think it is Laach, then it doesn't matter who I vote for, anyway.

 

Also is the person revealed to be a changeling when they are killed by us mob ponies? Or will we always be under the assumption that there might be two left? That would suck.

"If this can be avoided, it should. If it can't, then it would be better if it could be. If it happened and you're thinking back to it, try and think back further. Try not to avoid it with your mind. If any of this is possible, it may be helpful. If not, it won't be."

 

  • Replies 236
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Posted Images

We need word from the cop. Without them, there is little we can gather from just arguing about who looks most suspicious. To get more actual information, we need a kill, a death, or a cop claim. Nothing else will give us much tangible to work with.

 

Right now, Quetzal seems to be just defending himself, rather strongly, against a simple accusation from Laach. My first instinct would be to kill one, and if they are innocent, kill the other tomorrow if nothing better comes up. A cop claim would be better, in any case.

 

Sushi would be a meanie to let Laach get changeling twice in one game and deprive others of the fun, but right now, I'll give him the suspicious benefit of the doubt.

 

##Quetzal

Feel free to ask me anything.

Suffering is self-imposed. Don't let it control you.

Going through the textwall, Quetzal's excuse is true. I did have to bother him on steam to post.

Second: Thanks for that picture, almighty Japanese seafood.

Third: Yes jean, I'm still here, the King Of Forum Games would NEVER abandon his subjects.

Fourth: ##Questzal (Sorry, but you're too damn suspicious)

Fifth: Anyone want free cakes? I own a bakery now and all...

"Try to get a better understanding of things before making your judgement." -Khan, Metro 2033

 

 

One of Laach and Quetzal is a changling. Naive probability: 14/36 (I think)

This makes the most sense to me, and I'd say it's slightly more likely that Quetzal is the changling since he was the first to accuse, but only slightly and not enough to make any decisions.

 

 

I'd just like to say that Laach was the first to accuse, not me. I was listed as the primary suspect right off the bat, I'm...sure that counts as being accused of a changeling. Now I guess it could be said "I'm not saying I know for certain, I'm just listing possibilities", but I could pull the same arguement in my accusation of Laach, too. I don't know he's a changeling for sure, but it's a good possibility. I...was rather adamant about proving my innocence though, but honestly, who wouldn't? To be hoest I was a bit scared and desperate as I posted my accuations because I thought I was gonna be killed. Like right now, people are voting to kill me right now.

 

Right now, Quetzal seems to be just defending himself, rather strongly, against a simple accusation from Laach. My first instinct would be to kill one, and if they are innocent, kill the other tomorrow if nothing better comes up. A cop claim would be better, in any case.

 

Well, it's not really a "simple" accusation, I'm being labeled as the primary suspect, the most likely to be a changeling, the one of everyone's focus. Of course I'd defend myself strongly. I...honestly, I REALLY don't understand how everyone can acquitt me with just "He's defending himself a little too strongly". I'm sure most people would, if they were labelled as numero uno on the suspect list.

 

Laach just seems...really fishy. Like I said before, making a suspect list before the first day even ends. And then, look at his response to Jean Luc's post. I forgot to quote it when I started this post, and I don't really want to go back and redo this to include it, but you can always go back to see for yourself

 

"I don't really have a credible credible excuse for your first point though. At least, not one with information that I'm willing to risk giving out freely."

 

That...is just...REALLY edgy. And...and additionally, there was the other point of "I'll remove you from my suspect list if you can prove your worth". As Jean said, a suspect list should be a list of people you suspect, not a bargaining chip. It just seems...really edgy.

Sushi would be a meanie to let Laach get changeling twice in one game and deprive others of the fun

 

I used a random number generator to pick all the roles for both games, so a person's role in the previous game did not factor into it.

 

Second: Thanks for that picture, almighty Japanese seafood.

 

Not really worth thanks. It was such a rush job -- about five minutes in MS Paint. I spent longer googling that picture of the bakery than I did in paint.

"Some things have to be believed to be seen." - Ralph Hodgson

At the cop thing, it's very simple. You come out as cop, and if nobody challenges you, we all have information and the doctor can protect you from the changelings. Unless you're mafia pretending to be, and we'll find that out if another person counters that claim. It's an interesting mindgame to think about.

Feel free to ask me anything.

Suffering is self-imposed. Don't let it control you.

At the cop thing, it's very simple. You come out as cop, and if nobody challenges you, we all have information and the doctor can protect you from the changelings. Unless you're mafia pretending to be, and we'll find that out if another person counters that claim. It's an interesting mindgame to think about.

 

Interesting, I was going to ask you exactly that.

I guess I'll come out.... as not a cop. So exciting.

However, I wasn't sure whether to say this but I figure I should follow my own rules.

Last night the changlings attempted to kill me, but I was protected

Take that as you will


https://web.archive.org/web/20150513153754/https://community.tulpa.info/thread-mafia-ii-ponyville-in-danger?pid=125499

Fifth: Anyone want free cakes? I own a bakery now and all...

F*** *#$@ YES

 

I don't really have a credible credible excuse for your first point though. At least, not one with information that I'm willing to risk giving out freely.

I'm sorry it wasn't clear, but I was actually agreeing with you. When I first saw it I thought of it a suspicion towards you, until I saw that they were only a minute apart. I'm fairly sure Yuki had recieved their role PM by then.

 

Anyway, the votes currently stand:

Brassow: Quetzal

Yuki: Quetzal

Laach: Quetzal

Kiadaj: Quetzal

Me: Laach

Quetzal: Laach

LittleTulpa, Nimbus, Muffin: Aren't here.

#Quetzal: 4 -> 5 votes, current majority

#Laach: 2 -> 1

 

Currently I'm going to vote ##Quetzal

It's been almost exactly 24 hours since the day started, so I still have plenty of time. I believe if the day ended now Quetzal would be killed anyway, but I'm going off the fact that at most, 2 changlings are participating in this vote, so that's 2 people who aren't changlings and think Quetzal should die, at a minimum. So in this case I'm simply going to go with the crowd. I am still open to convincing.

Stats is back: https://stats.jean-luc.org/
I don't visit as often as I used to. If you want me to see something, make sure to quote a post of mine or ping me @jean-luc

Laach just seems...really fishy.

Hey. I resemble that remark.

 

Things are taking a very interesting turn as of lately. If I survive this day, chances are I will become the next person to be voted out. One way or another, the changelings will be down by one member.

 

Anyway, the only changes to my suspect list is that muffin has been boosted back up to likely, little tulpa is unlikely, and NimbusArchon is unlikely due to inactivity reasons alone.

 

I have nothing else to say for now.

Join Mafia II: Ponyville in Danger, the forum game of intrigue and deduction!

To make your dreams a reality, you must first understand the difference.

Hm.

I'm a bit put off by the complete lack of anyone else defending Quetzal... But that's just a feeling. I trust Laach at this point more than I trust Quetzal, mostly due to the reasons already outlined - Quetzal hasn't really been contributing past defending himself, while Laach is actively trying to spread information.

So I'll have to go with ##Quetzal at this point.

 

I think an important point to consider is this: If Quetzal is one of the two changelings, who is the other?

There's a chance that it's Brassow. The early offer of friendship could be taken as supporting that. Brassow has been laying low, and I think that the random, roleplayish stuff he's been doing might be a smokescreen - trying to make people think he isn't a threat. If Quetzal is in fact one of the changelings, Brassow is my number 2 suspect.

Cogito ergo cogito.

I'm taking little tulpa and Nimbus off of my list. I no longer suspect either of them.

 

I now only have three possible suspects for the second changeling. Muffin, Yuki, and Brassow.

 

Muffin:

  • Quiet, too quiet.
  • Makes the same mistake that Quetzal makes while voting.
  • Kiahdaj, a trustworthy member, suspects him. (but notably wasn't targeted or killed at night for it.)
  • Very little actions give us very little evidence to go off of.

 

Brassow:

  • Very blatantly established a companionship at the beginning.
  • Notably playing innocent/ laying low. Possible wolf in sheep's clothing?
  • Voting to kill Quetzal. And honest when doing so.
  • Due to short posts, I have very little evidence to go off of.

 

Yuki:

You know what? I'm making Yuki my new prime suspect number one. Just for safety purposes. If I die tonight, please suspect Yuki or one of the other people I've listed.

Join Mafia II: Ponyville in Danger, the forum game of intrigue and deduction!

To make your dreams a reality, you must first understand the difference.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...