Mafia II: Ponyville in Danger!

[sushi]

Can I just live in a bakery because the whole town is abandoned save for nine souls?

 

 

Wait... Why don't we just leave?

 

Princess Celestia has put a magical shield around Ponyville to keep any more changelings from getting in. The shield can only be lowered from within, and only when everypony within it works together.

 

 

This strategy has proved successful with changelings before.

 

[jean-luc]

Waitasecond.

 

We forgot about LittleTulpa.

By the way, where is he?

 

Indeed, he(they?) haven't posted since the game started. As to whether they're lying low or forgot about the game, I have no idea. Sushi could you please PM them?

[Laach]

Your reasoning for me being a changeling is extremely flawed. You're making bold accusations against me with very little evidence.

I admit that my reasoning may be flawed, but it was the best I could come up with at the time. I'm not making accusations. Yet. I did not say you were a changeling, I only said the chances of you being one were highly likely from my perspective.

 

I came both times because I know Brassow on Steam, and he told me to post while I was offline. I posted as soon as I saw in the thread that the game started, it's just, when I discovered that the game had started relevative to the game ACTUALLY starting was different

Hmm, this doesn't seem like a very effective excuse to me. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt though, since you seem to know what you're talking about.

 

I'll be honest, my strategy in these types of games is to lay low.

My point exactly.

 

Laach, you are making bold BOLD accusations against me with sub-par evidence, I believe that you are doing this because you are a changeling yourself and want to divert suspicion away from yourself and place it on others

(Again, not accusations. Bold, yes. Accusations, no.)

You forget that before I made the post, there was little to no suspicion on me. Now there is. You can hardly describe my actions as 'diverting'.

 

##Kill Laach

Who's with me?

Not me.

 

I'm willing to remove you from my suspect list if you prove your worth Quetzal. If I'm the first changeling, it would be easy to find the second changeling right? Who's working with me? Do you agree with me when I say that Yuki is prime suspect number two? Please. I'd like to hear your reasoning, not just your backlash.

[Quetzal the furdragon]

 

 

Quetzal is the prime suspect for multiple reasons:

• The first to vote, which is odd since in the last game he usually voted last or near last.
  
• Voting on impulse before everyone had fully agreed on a plan. Again, This goes against his habits displayed in the last game.
  
• Failing to respond to Brassow's comment of companionship. (only a heartless changeling would have the guts to do that.)
  
• First to fix/change his vote. Few things can make you look more guilty than this, although fixing your vote isn't as bad as changing it.
  

 

 

Couple of other things I forgot to mention, I only covered points 1 and 3, because those are the only ones I remembered when I posted my defense. Heh. A continuation of my rebuttal.

 

Point 2, voting on impulse. I thought it was generally understood in mafia games that everyone votes to abstain. That's my experience. Normally people don't vote to kill anyone on the first day because there's really no evidence or anyone to cast suspicion on and its pointless

 

Point 4, I know it was already covered, but I'll re-state it. I didn't change my vote, I voted to abstain, and then later voted to hammer. They are not the same, I chose to not vote to kill anyone, and then later I decided to vote to end the day early.

 

 

As for you thinking my excuse with Brassow and steam isn't very effective

 

http://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561198031500976

 

You can see I'm friends with him. You can see he's also commented on my profile too, and hell, you can just ask him if he told me to get on the forum both times, and he'll tell you if it's true or not

 

 

As for Yuki. I don't know, honestly, but I guess you may be right, we'll see what the others think

 

I think I'll change my vote, possibly. But we'll see, let's see what the others think and have to say. I was voting to kill you though, because you being overly analytical like this and already choosing a primary suspect with just scant evidence and on the first day seems...really edgy

[jean-luc]

I'm willing to remove you from my suspect list if you prove your worth Quetzal.

What? That's a horrible way of doing things, offering a lower position on you list as a bargaining chip. Two reasons:

1. There's no garuntee you'll follow through and I guess not vote for him?

2. Your suspect list should be based on who you suspect, no?

 

---

So, just to review:

• People in this game are:
  • Brassow
    
  • Quetzal
    
  • Laach
    
  • Muffin
    
  • Kiadaj
    
  • Myself
    
  • Yuki
    
  • Littletulpa
    
  • Nimbus
    

  [*]Brassow voted and then dissapeared the first day, however he may have just gone to sleep IRL. Came back with some ZZZZs once night came, then wanted to live in the bakery. That's it so far. Conclusion: Laying low

  [*]Quetzal voted with the crowd the first day, and no other posts until his defense and following offence against Laach. Then another defence. Interesting

  [*]Laach was my fellow murderer last time, and he was doing a similar thing but in PMs (as I believe I've said before, but whatever). The first day he votes with the crowd and then posts his first long post. He then posts a (IMO accurate) rebuttal against Yuki's post. Then he thanks me, and apologizes for his first long post. Then he cuts out for the day saying he's too tired. Then 12 minutes later modifies his suspect list. Night comes, he points out littletulpa appears to be missing, then some roleplay, then day rolls around again and he posts a rebuttal against Quetzal. Conclusion: Active, and generally more helpful than detrimental.

  [*]Muffin: Votes with the crowd, and then after that hasn't posted at all. Laying very low?

  [*]Kiadaj: Votes with the crowd (seeing a pattern?), Then later does a little summary of his current thinkings. Says Quetzal & muffin are suspicious, and that he doesn't care if laach is a changling. Clarifies his position a bit, and then dissapears. ?????

  [*]Yuki:(see below) Starts off by arguing against Laach's way of thinking, and votes with the popular in the same post. Hasn't posted since then.

  [*]Littletulpa: As pointed out before, hasn't posted at all since the game started.

  [*]Nimbus: First to propose that we abstain (but only actually votes in a second post), then they say that Laach isn't the protector or detective because of how much attention laach is drawing. Hasn't posted since then.

 

Something I noticed: In laach's first suspect post, he rags on yuki for saying "im a pony!". However, that post was made before the game started. One minute before, to be exact, so pretty much right after yuki got their role PM. Interesting.

 

As a general ruleset (and rule I mean we should enforce it by killing), I propose the following:

1. All must be helpful to the ponies. That way, the non changlings just do as normal, and the changlings must pretend to be helpful, and may even actually be somewhat helpful in this pretending. This may seem obvious, but I figure I'd state it anyway.
   
2. No stating anything about who the Defender or Detective is. No suspicions or anything. Just keep it to yourself. It helps the changlings much more than it helps us.
   

Does that seem fair?

 

One more thing:

I didn't think this would matter as much to the game until after I saw the last one played. The rules as I copied and pasted them don't explicitly forbid daytime PMs, and they do say you can PM your partner as much as you wish, so I'll say that daytime PMs are legal.

Then

... Apparently daytime PMs between the two changelings are against the rules now.

Either an honest mistake, or purposeful misdirection, I'm not sure.

 

But, it is enough to tip me over the edge. ##Laach

[Laach]

I think I'll change my vote, possibly. But we'll see, let's see what the others think and have to say. I was voting to kill you though, because you being overly analytical like this and already choosing a primary suspect with just scant evidence and on the first day seems...really edgy

Honestly, I was a bit scared and desperate when making that post. I truly felt as if I were going to be killed that night. I wanted to get my full analysis out before the changelings had a chance to off me. I only realized I could use my list as blackmail after coming up with it.

 

Anyway, I'm going to hold back on voting until someone I trust (Jean-luc, Nimbus, etc.) gives their thoughts on the matter. I feel as though making a hasty vote right now would only accelerate the growth of the seeds of distrust that have already been planted amongst my comrades.

I'm so tired that I'm starting to use metaphors. The heck?

[Kiahdaj]

I think those 2 rules are fair, Jean-luc. If you aren't being helpful, you're not of any use. And that will make it harder for the changelings maybe. I also agree about the no theorizing who the protector/detective are, because we wouldn't want to tip off the changelings. That is, under most circumstances.

 

I'm usually pretty passive, so I'm inclined not to vote yet, with such little to go on. But I suppose nothing will happen at that rate. And on the bright side, my vote very much can be subject to change.

at least I think I can change it

 

 

Currently, Quetzal seems the most suspicious to me. For the reasons Laach said originally, and others. He seems a little too quick to defend himself, here. As was pointed out, the entirety of his rather lengthy post was saying why he has an excuse—not who might actually be the culprits. He then proceeds to use that to turn right on Laach. I'm not by any means saying I think Laach is innocent, but that smelled a lot like a revenge vote, to me. Gotta get us off his trail.

 

I still have a weird feeling about Muffin, and obviously no one here feels good about Laach. Yuki also has the slightest tinge of suspicion from me. But neither of my reasoning for either is very significant, so I'm not going to jump on that.

 

On that note, I think I will have to go with ##Quetzal. He is the only one that truly (again, aside from Laach) stands out to me.

[Quetzal the furdragon]

Well, Kiah, it is true I am rather quick to defend myself. But put yourself in my position, you're labeled as the primary suspect right off the bat, the first day isn't even over. Of course you're quick to defend yourself! Hell, you'd be quick to defend yourself if you were labeled the primary suspect no matter what! Anyone would! What am I supposed to say, "Yeah, I guess you have a point, it could be me"

 

Now, as for my lengthy posts...well, I mean, I wanted to invalidate all of Laach's claims against me, of course. But this isn't necessarily a revenge vote. I guess it kind of is, I'll grant you that, but when you think about it logically, why would he do that and make all these analysises and cast suspicion on others on the first day with such...tiny tiny evidence? Think about it....it just seems edgy. And Jean Luc, Jean exposed more flaws in his reasoning too.

[Laach]

Something I noticed: In laach's first suspect post, he rags on yuki for saying "im a pony!". However, that post was made before the game started. One minute before, to be exact, so pretty much right after yuki got their role PM. Interesting.

 

One more thing:

Then

Either an honest mistake, or purposeful misdirection, I'm not sure.

 

But, it is enough to tip me over the edge. ##Laach

 

Honest mistake. In the role PM's it says during the night you may PM your partner. Notice how it doesn't say anything about being able to PM them during the day.

 

I don't really have a credible credible excuse for your first point though. At least, not one with information that I'm willing to risk giving out freely.

 

I'm voting ##Quetzal.

Sorry Quetzal, but there's a limit to how many coincidences I'm willing to accept.

[jean-luc]

He seems a little too quick to defend himself, here. As was pointed out, the entirety of his rather lengthy post was saying why he has an excuse—not who might actually be the culprits. He then proceeds to use that to turn right on Laach. I'm not by any means saying I think Laach is innocent, but that smelled a lot like a revenge vote, to me.

Too quick? I would be just as quick to defend myself. That seems like quite some odd reasoning. So yes he was defending himself, as I would expect anyone to do. And of course he turns on laach, because from his point of view, he knows he's not a changling, therefor laach's acusing makes him think laach is a changling. Same way if you swap places.

There are four possibilities:

 

• Both laach and Quetzal are changlings. Naive probability: 1/36
  This may seem stupid at first, but by pointing fingers at eachother they could avoid being seen as *both* being changlings. But, this seems like a stupid strategy unless they were both suspected. However, because of this seeming like a stupid strategy, that might make it a good strategy. However, because of the low starting probability, I'm thinking it's not very likely
  
• One of Laach and Quetzal is a changling. Naive probability: 14/36 (I think)
  This makes the most sense to me, and I'd say it's slightly more likely that Quetzal is the changling since he was the first to accuse, but only slightly and not enough to make any decisions.
  
• Neither is a changling. Naive probability: 21/36
  If this is true, this is very bad. We're throwing accusations around and getting two people to fight who should be allies. I don't really know how to tell.
  

 

My math, please tell me if I got it wrong:

There are 9 people and 2 changlings, so there are (9 choose 2) = 36 possible pairs of changlings. Both is only one pair, so 1/36 for the first probability.

As for the second, if laach is the changling and quetz isnt, then there are seven other people laach could be paired with, and same for if quetz is a changling, bringing us to 7x2 = 14 possibilities, out of 36 so 14/36

As for the third, it's simply the only possible option if the first two aren't true, so 1-(1/36)-(14/36) = 21/36

 

Whatever happens, we need to cooperate. I'm willing to change my vote, please convince me one way or another.

 

We are still forgetting all the inactive ones.

Littletulpa, Yuki, Nimbus, and Muffin. and maybe brassow, who hasnt posted since going to the bakery