Mafia VI: Spooky scary skeletons!

[Chi]

But see, hypothetically, if I'm innocent, then GuessWho must be also, since keeping both of us alive is the only way the skeletons can make us look guilty; if one of us is dead we can't be working together.

Both me and GuessWho were actively contributing and GuessWho showed some good pro-"town" logic by opposing a Day 1 NoKill, so why would the skeletons kill Brassow, who was contributing less? Obviously, if we're not skeletons, we were set up.

Probably goes without saying, but I'm opposed to killing GuessWho following the above logic.

 

So there are two possible teams from your perspective - Me and GuessWho, or sushi and Aphelion.

 

The problem is we only have one more shot at this. If we lynch the wrong person, there are 2 skeletons and 2 innocents left, then the skeletons get to night kill someone, leaving two skeletons and one innocent and meaning we lose because we're outnumbered. In the case the wizard happens to protect the person that the skeletons decide to kill, I'm not actually sure if the game would end in a draw or if we would win, but leaving everything up the the wizard is a big risk.

 

So yeah. Do not rush into this decision. You need more information so you can asses the possibility of sushi/Aphelion, and whether or not it's more likely than Me/GuessWho.

 

I'm not yet sure who I'd want to see dead out of everyone else myself, but I definitely want to hear from Aphelion. And like I said, no hammering today please; we need to be as informed as possible before we lynch someone and anyone suggesting otherwise is likely a skeleton.

[Actinium]

The whole reason I'm quiet is because I don't think through all of these things nearly as much as you guys do. I consider possibilities but never go too far into detail with who could or couldn't be mafia. I keep things short and simple. Anyone could be mafia, literally anyone. I'm gonna hold off on voting for now.

[GuessWho]

[Previous Version: Original]

[Previous Version: 2nd Edition] (No major changes, just a whole lot more text and a few minor corrections.)

3rd Edition (I messed up the archive link when I edited - so I just archived again and fixed that. Minor additions/corrections)

v

 

---

I voted for Mel out of self-preservation - going with the flow.

While I succeeded in living, we unfortunately ended up picking the wrong person to kill.

---

...well, it looks like the mafia didn't pick someone to kill yet. Sorry guys, but I can't start the next day. And it'll be a bit until I'm back, so enjoy your extra extra long night.

 

Aphelion & Kiahdaj had been away the longest at this time.

 

I believe Chi is innocent - She's putting too much effort into the innocent person act to be mafia.

 

Haven't heard much from Aphelion so...

 

##Aphelion

 

This is just a pressure vote really; feel free to make me change my mind.

Seconded.

 

##Aphelion

 

Hammer (I posted that before reading the whole thread - Chi is right: others' votes may give us the info we need to be more certain about our choices. I'll revoke that hammer)

With 3 innocents, as long as none of us 3 hammer, we can be assured the mafia don't pull a fast one on us should we wish to change our votes.

 

I'm about 70% certain of Aphelion, 90% certain of Kiahdaj, and only about 30% suspicious about Sushi, at this point.

I would've probably wanted to get rid of Kiahdaj first, but I'll vote where there's strength in numbers.

 

Since Kiahdaj seems to be hunting Myself and Chi, the only two people I'm convinced are innocent, I'm convinced he's Mafia.

Also, notice Kiahdaj didn't attack Aphelion - Who I suspect is his partner.

 

Worst case, we kill one mafia, they kill one of us tonight, and tomorrow's game is 2 innocents vs 1 mafia.

We've just about won this one.

---

Unless it's just an act - Sushi not knowing how many mafia there are would not make sense for mafia - he'd surely know his partner if he was one.

However, bringing that up now is also irrelevant as the game would've already ended if there were 3.

---

I PM'd Quetzel about this a bit ago, and apparently there are 2 spooky skeletons.

With everyone who's been killed so far being regular innocent humans, that means we currently have 2 skeletons, the Wizard, X-ray dude, and 1 regular human still in play.

That's assuming Brassow wasn't the Wizard or X-ray dude, as his role was never revealed.

If the X-Ray dude is still in play, he'd have more information than the rest of us to cast a correct vote.

With an assured victory if we vote correctly, revealing his identity now [if he has enough information to convict a mafia] and have the wizzard protect him tonight to gather information to convict the last one.

It wouldn't hurt to blab now we're going the wrong way and need guidance.

 

That being said, it's better to leave a bit of FUD for the mafia about our roles as innocents, if we're gonna kill one anyway.

---

Regarding the X-Ray man.

It's not Kiahdaj - He would've investigated me long ago and know that I'm innocent - and so, not to vote for me.

If he's Mafia, he'd vote for me anyway, knowing that I'm innocent.

 

It's probably not Aphelion - otherwise he'd surely have gathered enough info to cast his vote already.

---

While I'm sure Kiahdaj is a mafia, I'm not 100% certain whether his partner is Aphelion or Sushi.

Kiadaj hasn't tried to kill either of them.

 

If we can assume Kiahdaj's guilt, that puts Aphelion in a pinch: joining Kiahdaj in a vote against me would only make Aphelion look more guilty, so he must "abstain" for now.

If we can Aphelion's Guilt: His reluctance to vote could also be an attempt to protect his partner - as joining Kiahdaj in a vote against me would only make Kiahdaj look more guilty. As it stands Chi would probably vote for Sushi tomorrow, so Kiahdaj would have a better chance of surviving longer.

 

...and that's why I picked Aphelion over Sushi. I still want Kiahdaj dead, but then I'd need Chi and the other innocent to agree with me on that first.

---

Finally as another plea for my own innocence: if I was mafia, I would've already killed Kiahdaj and/or Sushi overnight to prevent them from instigating another vote against me in the next day.

[sushi]

Damn, lots of discussion to catch up on.

 

Kiahdaj is right that lynching inactive people hasn't worked out for us so far. However, inactive people are the most dangerous for innocents, because it's unlikely that they'll slip up and reveal something by mistake. For that reason alone, and not for any particular evidence, I'm very tempted to vote Aphelion as well. I could be convinced otherwise though.

 

Kiahdaj has brought up the dwindling number of people still alive, and it's been a while since I've updated my list, so let's do that.

 

Aphelion

Mel[/s]

GuessWho

sushi

Kiahdaj

Brassow

Chi

jean-luc

 

(I finally took the question mark off Kiahdaj's name. Yay!)

 

Ok, so as Kiahdaj pointed out, three of us are innocent, and those three have a 50% chance of guessing correctly at this point.

 

Best case scenario: today we kill a skeleton, tonight the remaining skeleton kills an innocent, tomorrow we have two innocents against one skeleton and a 50% chance of innocent victory.

 

Worst case scenario: today we kill an innocent and we've lost the game, because the skeletons kill another innocent tonight, and there's nothing to save the last innocent's life.

 

That means that (talking probability only) the innocents have a 25% chance of winning at this point. This vote could change everything.

 

It's high stakes.

 

Kiahdaj suggests: Chi and GuessWho.

Chi suggests: sushi and Aphelion.

GuessWho suggests: Kiahdaj and Aphelion.

 

GuessWho seems pretty sure that Chi is innocent. Chi seems pretty sure that GuessWho is innocent. They're calling a lot of attention to the fact that they're working together -- which seems like really poor strategy if they're both skeletons.

 

So, possibilities as I see them:

 

1. GuessWho and Chi are both innocent. (16.6%) That makes Kiahdaj and Aphelion both skellies.

2. GuessWho and Chi are both skellies. (16.6%) Seems pretty unlikely, but maybe they're hoping we'll

3. Either GuessWho or Chi is a skelly, but the other one is innocent. (66.6%) Statistically very likely -- but my hunch is against it. And so are theirs.

 

Aphelion's silence is dangerous because when someone is silent they're less likely to give us clues about their innocence.

 

Aphelion's silence is suspicious because who isn't pointing fingers by this point? Who, aside from someone who is laying low because they have something to hide?

 

And Kiahdaj points fingers at everyone but Aphelion and myself.

 

Guys, this is a real gamble, and if we're wrong about this, it will cost us the entire game, but I really think it's Aphelion and Kiahdaj.

 

##Aphelion

[GuessWho]

My head hurts now.

^ Even though you agree with me on the voting, I feel a little more suspicious of you after that post.

---

Why do I get the feeling you might be agreeing with me and throwing your teammate under the bus to save yourself.

Now I'm considering the possibility of Kiahdaj & sushi.

 

I actually want to make the safe choice and switch my vote to Kiahdaj...

...but that might that might give sushi a chance to join Kiahdaj in offing me.

A Kiahdaj+Sushi vote for me, with my vote for Kiahdaj would put me at at least 2:1 against Aphelion - as he won't vote for himself.

Even if Chi or Aphelion joins me, Kiahdaj put in a vote for me before anyone will have voted for him

- so my only way out of that one would be if any two others supported me in killing Kiahdaj. I won't switch my vote unless that can happen

---

With Aphelion the main suspect for today, he can't vote for me without looking suspicious. (and making anyone who joins him look suspicious)

Neither can sushi.

An Aphelion+sushi vote for me (in addition to Kiahdaj) would confirm the Aphelion+sushi pairing that Chi suspects, confirm my innocence and give Kiahdaj a chance to change his vote to band against you guys (as he'd be innocent in that situation)

That is - unless you everyone accept Kiahdaj's theory, which, knowing what I know still makes him kook guilty to me. - Then we're fucked.

---

I'm still not entirely sure Chi is innocent as I'm more certain of Kiahdaj's guilt and Chi doesn't appear to suspect Kiahdaj right now. (What is we're facing Chi+Kiahdaj)

I'll hope she's just misguided and not playing us all.

For now, I'll give her the benefit of the doubt and let my vote stand.

---

 

This is my personal suspicion scale at the moment:

Kiahdaj: 80%

Aphelion: 55%

sushi: 45%

Chi: 20%

GuessWho: 0%

 

It's subjective, obviously.

---

Someone post something to give me a bit more confidence.

To Aphelion: you're going to die at the current rate - let's see what you have to say for yourself.

[Quetzal the furdragon]

...sorry about not revealing Brassow's role. He was an average guy too, we've still got all of the special roles still alive

[Kiahdaj]

Okay, I'm a bit confused how so much accusation has been instantly shifted to me. It probably does look like I'm out to get GuessWho and Chi, but well, that's because they seem the most suspicious to me. And for the record, I only think Chi is mafia if GuessWho is. I also never said that Aphelion couldn't be mafia—just that there's less evidence pointing towards that possibility, in my opinion.

 

At this point, I definitely don't want to change my vote to Aphelion, because if they do turn out to be mafia, everyone is going to assume that I'm the other. At this point, I can only hope you're right that she is, I guess. You're voting to lynch someone because they've been inactive, rather than based on any behavioral suspicion.

Personally, I find it pretty guilty-looking that GuessWho jumps to attack anyone who suspects him. 'You notice that? He said he wishes he could lynch sushi because he started the vote on him. Now I'm "80%" on his guilty scale because I'm the only one who still suspects him. Between that and sheer gut feeling, I just can't change my vote, even though it will probably make no difference at this point.

[Chi]

Good to get your thoughts guys!

 

Alright, let's clear something up first...

So there are two possible teams from your perspective - Me and GuessWho, or sushi and Aphelion.

(Emphasis added by me)

I was talking to Kiahdaj when I said this. I am NOT suggesting a sushi/Aphelion team; I was pointing out it was the only possible alternative FOR KIAHDAJ, since Kiahdaj is not going to suspect a team with himself on it.

 

I don't think sushi and Aphelion is a likely team because I can't see sushi throwing Aphelion under the bus at his stage when there are so many other alternatives.

So in my mind there are two possible teams - sushi and Kiahdaj, or Aphelion and Kiahdaj. I'm afraid both involve Kiahdaj, so...

 

##Kiahdaj

[Actinium]

Weeeeeelll, f_ck it, looks like people are suspecting me up the wazoo so I might as well reveal my role. I'm a spoopy scawy skeleton. Go ahead and kill me. I ain't revealing my partner, though.

[Chi]

At this point, I definitely don't want to change my vote to Aphelion, because if they do turn out to be mafia, everyone is going to assume that I'm the other. At this point, I can only hope you're right that she is, I guess. You're voting to lynch someone because they've been inactive, rather than based on any behavioral suspicion.

I can assure you that if we got Aphelion lynched and she turned out to be mafia, voting for Aphelion would look a lot less incriminating than being defensive of her and hoping your GuessWho bandwagon picks up again.

 

Personally, I find it pretty guilty-looking that GuessWho jumps to attack anyone who suspects him.

a) You're doing the exact same thing right now.

b) This is not alignment indicative. It's pretty natural to be suspicious of people who seem out to get you lynched.

 

Weeeeeelll, f_ck it, looks like people are suspecting me up the wazoo so I might as well reveal my role. I'm a spoopy scawy skeleton. Go ahead and kill me. I ain't revealing my partner, though.

Sounds like a last minute attempt to save Kiahdaj; I see no reason why you would post this if you were working together with sushi, assuming this isn't a troll post.

 

I'd say Kiahdaj/Aphelion is practically confirmed right now.