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Mafia IV: Trapped in Brian


jean-luc

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Well, after a night of thinking it over, I can say with almost certainty that Nimbus is not mafia.

"Some things have to be believed to be seen." - Ralph Hodgson

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Ha

 

Yeah, he's probably fine. Or maybe he stole from tupper godfather and made a good fall-man? Or whatever it's called.

 

We're no better off now, because it could have either been Shui or myself that killed him, or an actual member of the tupper mafia knowing that we'd be the best candidates for blame if they took him out. We made him a safe kill, and for that I apologize.

 

Or Shui is mafia and anyone suspicious of his quick desire to kill was right. His desire to not be eaten post-imposition eclipses only my desire not to be imposed as a female horse when our host is likely a pubescent male ;-;

 

Plsno

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We're no better off now, because it could have either been Shui or myself that killed him, or an actual member of the tupper mafia knowing that we'd be the best candidates for blame if they took him out.

 

It could have been, but I think we are better off now. We've obviously eliminated Nimbus as a suspect, but I think we've also eliminated a few other people. Quetzal warned me not to point fingers before Nimbus turned up dead:

 

Sushi, you are really making yourself look suspicious, just saying

 

I don't think Quetzal would have said that if he were mafia. He would have been glad that I was attracting attention to myself because it would have served his own goals -- not that he'd encourage what I was doing, but he could very well stay silent about it. So I think Quetzal is innocent.

 

I also think that Enny is innocent. I'm sure Enny would put himself on the line for the good of the team, but at this point the mafia stands to lose more if a mafia member dies than they stand to gain if an innocent dies.

 

Let's say for the sake of argument that I'm innocent and Enny is mafia. If I were to die right now, we'd go go from 37.5% mafia, 62.5% innocents to 42.8% mafia, 57.2% innocents. On the other hand, if Enny were killed, which seems almost as likely, we'd be 28.5% mafia to 71.5% innocents. So Enny would be looking at a gain of 5.3 or a loss of 9. That's bad pot odds.

 

What I'm saying is I think if Enny were mafia he would do this, but not with the odds against him. Since the odds are against him, Enny isn't mafia.

 

So in my humble opinion, it isn't me, Enny, Quetzal, or Nimbus. With that many people eliminated, any guess is 60% likely to be correct. I'm most worried about the possibility of Muffin or Kiahdaj being mafia, so I'm going to point my finger at them.

 

For now, I'll say ##Kiahdaj.

"Some things have to be believed to be seen." - Ralph Hodgson

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For some reason, I have this weird feeling that both sushi and Quetzal are evil, and Quetzal is using accusations to make it look like he's innocent. But I dunno.

Either way, I already said that Sushi was my most likely suspect, and I don't wanna die, so I'll vote ##sushi.

I'd say it's perfectly likely that he tried to kill an innocent, under the guise of being helpful.

 

Other than that, I don't have much to say. No one else looks particularly suspicious to me, yet.

"If this can be avoided, it should. If it can't, then it would be better if it could be. If it happened and you're thinking back to it, try and think back further. Try not to avoid it with your mind. If any of this is possible, it may be helpful. If not, it won't be."

 

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Obvious sushi is obvious. He randomly decided to execute our poor giraffe admin without viable reason.

##sushi

"Try to get a better understanding of things before making your judgement." -Khan, Metro 2033

 

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"Never rely on an RNG for answers. Those are the kind of things that get sponges and cling-ons married. Also when you say "Since I already know I'm not mafia" you're just begging to get yourself killed. ##sushi"

"It's all about synthesis, you don't have to be a real musician. You just synthesize your own reality, synthesize your own talents." -Klayton

 

My Three Mind Horses

Haven: Tulpa #1

Created on 10-28-14

Aphelion: Tulpa #2

Created on 2-25-15 

Chimera: Self Proclaimed Thoughtform

Created on: Can't remember. Sometime around Easter of 2017.

 

Warning: I am a huge nerd.

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For now, I'll hesitantly vote ##Sushi

 

I think it's weird how far he's going to prove my innocence, and while flattering, it seems like it may be a ploy to kill me in the night without fear of suspicion.

 

Second to him is Eva. Just.. Something in what she said. If I happen to die tonight, put her into stasis tomorrow.

 

Then Kiahdaj. He was playing an outwardly undecided game last time, despite being the parasite, knowing that he could withhold his votes during the day, or at least for as long as it would take to make it look like he wasn't eager to kill someone, and then he'd just kill them via brain death or whatever. Or maybe my memory is fogged.

 

I think Quetzal is fairly safe, assuming Sushi is mafia. I'll let in that he was my partner last game, and was fairly short-spoken through PM, so I have my doubts that the two of them have been able to coordinate any major strategies so far, but really, who knows?

 

Sushi's death seems to be inevitable, but my top three are Brassow, Kiahdaj, and a tie between Quetzal (If Shui winds up being innocent), and Yuki (Three games, and not mafia? Playing this one by odds). Haven seems pretty alright to me so far, but we'll see in the next couple turns.

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You're right, no viable reason, but Kiahdaj single-handedly stopped the mafia from killing a single person in our second game. He has always seemed to be very quiet and competent -- a very dangerous person to have on the other side. You're absolutely right that I have no evidence against him, but I believe there's a 60% chance he's mafia, and I think he'd be the most dangerous person to have in the mafia.

 

To be honest, I don't expect Kiahdaj to die any more than I expected Nimbus to die. I'm just throwing his name out there to stir up discussion and put the idea in everyone's mind that Kiahdaj might be dangerous.

 

We need to start lynching people or we don't have a chance of taking out the mafia. I'd rather not be the first one lynched, but if that's how it goes, that's how it goes.

"Some things have to be believed to be seen." - Ralph Hodgson

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